Opinion: Pick your horse

A few weeks back in the Tribune, television critic Maureen Ryan did an American Idol article in which she gave her opinion of each contestant and their chances of winning. As usual, Ms. Ryan was dead wrong about pretty much everything. In general, I'd rate her opinions at about the same level as I'd rate "weather predictor" Tom Skilling's: ground level and getting lower. In fact, I'd put her second on my list of "People the Chicago Tribune Should Fire Today," right behind technology "writer" Eric Gwynn.

Anyway, I'll take a crack at rating the six remaining contestants myself. I wish I had written this post a week earlier, before Kristy got eliminated, so that I could use the nickname I've given her, Kristy Lee Cock (so named for her mannish lunges). But there, I've managed to work it in anyway. Without further ado, here's what George thinks about the top 6:

Syesha Mercado Syesha's an odd bird-- she actually has a really pleasant voice at times, and she has a little bit of power when she needs it. But her pitch can be all over the place during some performances and no matter how hard she tries, she still ends up mostly forgettable.
Can she win? No way, Jose. Syesha ain't got the skillz. But she is the last "minority" (read: black) contestant, so don't be surprised if she hangs around another couple weeks.

David Archuleta Oh, David. Why does the Idol viewing world love you so? It causes me physical pain to admit this, but... yes, David Archuleta does have a nice voice. However, any talent he might have is completely overshadowed by his nausea-inducing personality. His "aw shucks" routine was irritating from the get-go, and soon grew to be unbearable. Now, the only way I can make it though his performances is by doing my impression of him for Marissa--it seems to release the pressure valve a little so I don't start throwing my shoes at the tv. (My favorite impression material is from his post-performance conversation with Ryan after singing "Another Day in Paradise": "Well, I just thought it was really meaningful because, you know, a lot of people don't have homes..."
Can he win? Sadly, yes. As much as I hate him, that's how much your average teenage girl seems to love him. And if he does... I might leave the country to protect my ears from the horror of his 10-emotional-ballads-in-a-row debut album.

Brooke White Say what you will about Brooke White, you'll never sway my devotion to her! I don't care that you think she's boring! I don't care how many cracks you make about her troubles picking good songs, not to mention making it through a performance with her shoes still on! I don't care that she appears to be somewhat manic depressive! I love her anyway!
Can she win? Sadly, no. In an interesting paradox, although Brooke just doesn't have the pipes to survive once the bigger voices start blowing the roof off the place, she can probably sell more albums as a solo artist than any of the other contestants. There's a market out there for her singer-songwritery vibe, and it's the kind of market that really doesn't care who wins American Idol. Which means that she doesn't really have to win.

Carly Smithson Carly was the odds-on favorite to win the whole thing when the finals began, and for a good reason: she's the best singer in a singing competition. But she's proven to have two serious issues: one, she can't pick a song to save her life. You'd think that a great singer would be able to find a song every week that showcases her voice properly. You'd be wrong. Two, just because she has vocal power, doesn't mean she needs to try to prove it every week. I half-expect one of her internal organs to come flying out of her mouth in the middle of one of her performances. She's as hard-working as Michael Bolton, and she's got the scrunched-up, angry-face to prove it. And by the way, they're not doing her any favors by showing us shots of her husband in the audience so often. This guy looks like he'd be at home biting the head off a chicken in a travelling carnival. Seriously.
Can she win? If she gets out of her own way, Carly can still win. Maybe as the coaching gets better week to week, she'll start getting better advice on how to present her talent better. But I doubt it. I think Carly's going down in the next couple weeks. It's a shame, really.

Jason Castro In the interest of full disclosure, I have to reveal that Jason is Marissa's favorite. She, like many female Idol viewers, thinks he's quite dreamy. So if I say anything too bad about Jason, I'm likely to cause repercussions at home that just wouldn't be worth the trouble. I can say, honestly, that Jason has a pleasant voice, and a light, laid-back style that's refreshing to hear between the power performances. But he's got to have just the right song for it to work, and that just doesn't happen very often.
Can he win? Nope. I'd say that, behind David Archuleta, Jason Castro has the biggest number of screaming-meemie teenage fans, and they're a powerful voting block. But unless he pulls out another perfect song every week (like he did with Jeff Buckley's version of "Hallelujah" and whoever's version of "Somewhere Over the Rainbow") he's going to get dropped. Who knows though... maybe there's a market out there for him.

David Cook Not only is David Cook an outstanding singer, he's got two other things going for him. One, he's the right kind of singer at the right time. The typical schlock R&B style that Idol tends to promote is wearing very thin seven seasons into the show. Although there's always been the "rocker" contestant, they've never had much of a shot. Now, post-Daughtry, there's a much better chance that a contestant who owns a pair of testicles can actually win. Secondly, David is not just a good singer, he's a good musician. His performances are fun to watch because he's so adept at taking a tired old song and turning it into something new. (Lionel Richie? Are you kidding me?) It also helps that that "something new" is always something alternative rock.
Can he win? He's got the pipes, he's got the musicianship, he's got the fan base... he can absolutely win it. But should he? Remember that Daughtry got bounced in the final four, put out a solo album and is now one of the best selling rock acts around. What would have happened if he'd have actually won? Would he still have the credibility to be a mainstream rock artist and not a teenie bopper phenomenon? Look at Kelly Clarkson's rough ride trying to be taken seriously as a musical artist and not just a talent show-winning singer. What will be interesting to speculate about is whether David Cook can sell more albums as an American Idol winner or as a loser.